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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  April 13, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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i am alix steel. ♪ stocksod rally underway, closing higher. the s&p at its highest level since early december. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" scarlet: investors look ahead to a meeting of opec members. our guest says, don't believe the hype. joe: bank of america and wells fargo report tomorrow, how bad energy loans are weighing on the banks? alix: we have the three charts that you can't miss. a banner day for the dow, up 180 points, 2016 highs. still in a range, but the top end of the range for this year. chinese trade data, j.p. morgan
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better than expected results giving a boost. a few percentage points away from an all-time high. a remarkable move today. overseas rally started with the shanghai composite, a pretty good import-export data out of china for march. the shanghai composite had its best close since january. it is up 15% from the lows that month. over to europe, a monster rally of european banks, the highest level since 2011, a tie-in banks leading the way for a third day, and that rally spread to u.s. stocks, also boosted by banks and j.p. morgan earnings. points, so adding 18 into a-inspired rally bank rally in the u.s..
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joe: you might think yields will jump up, but not the case, only a minor gain on the two-year, a takedown on the yield on the 10 year. when not that great, more on that later. inflation pressures still not there. have a big risk on day, there does not seem to be anthing in the data accelerated pace of rate hikes, and as a result the yields are muted. scarlet: we did see the dollar rally the most in six weeks, take up at the end of that chart k up at the end of that chart. the dollarsng at move versus the canadian dollar,
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so there is that big move around 10:00 a.m. when the bank of canada left interest rates unchanged. the central bank governors saying that he may have been to cut rates if not for the government's fiscal stimulus. alix: oil had that killer today rally off the highs, but nonetheless some bullish data with those doe numbers. oil production here is below lowestllion barrels, the as production rolls over. the other commodity story was china, the china-inspired commodity rally. iron ore of over $60, copper surging. a boost to all
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commodities across the board. energy xxi set to file bankruptcy according to people with the matter. they had missed to interest payments due on march 15. houston.sed in joe: it is trading like a penny stock already. clearly the market had seen this one coming. is one of the many oil companies that were on the docket for bankruptcy. nonetheless, the ball is rolling. scarlet: the ball is also potentially rolling on thursday president obama will issue his final offshore drilling thursday, in addition
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to this bankruptcy filing of xxi. alix: energy companies really focused on what those rules may be. you can find all these charts using the function at the bottom of your bloomberg screen. i'm looking at a big bankruptcy, peabody energy. this is the biggest bankruptcy so far this year. billion in $10.1 cropsey, the largest so far this --r, and this outlines peabody has $10.1 billion in bankruptcy, the largest so far and year, and this outlines the largest chapter 11 bankruptcies of 2016. sectorsone of the worst , terrible, beaten up, even stress investors don't want to touch it.
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scarlet: presidential candidates dumping on these coal producers as well. theme, i'mthe energy looking at energy stocks trading above their 200 day moving average. big cap energy names of moved up as well. energy stocks in the s&p 500 trading above the 52 week high has also gone up. what you are looking at is the thee line energy index, purple line is the 200 day moving average. after 566 days in which energy stocks were trading below their 200 day moving average. can they sustain that level? last time they went all the way september 2014.
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joe: i'm looking at something totally different. you guys talked about the china data last night, pretty strong chinese trade data, but check .ut this chart it shows chinese imports from various trading partners, japan, the u.s. down a little bit. look at that hong kong number, up 116% year over year, and the theory is these are not real him points -- real imports. it is basically a shadow capital flight, invoice to such a degree , like a by basketball and pay $100 for it, as a way to get money out of the country. it shows that these are the different ways that people get money out of the country. when you see a move like that, you have to wonder what is going on. alix: you have to take the
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imports with a grain of salt. the data is noisy and bounces around, but that is quite a number. scarlet: early 2013, you had another big surge. this time there has been a buildup to this increase. you can see all these charts and more on twitter. alix: joining us today is a global oil and gas strategist from houston. scarlet: this weekend is a major oil meeting. you say you don't believe the hype surrounding it. why is that? >> it's going to be hard to pull off a really credible and and forciblend freeze. there are too many conflicting incentives among the members, so that plus the mechanics of enforcement, measurement, i think it is a tough one to walk out of there with a credible agreement. re are scenarios where
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the optics look ok, but i think the market will see through that. if it is not credible, it will be obvious. have a great chart that shows basically where the production freeze would be if it was january levels and where opec production actually is. level,ay below that meaning if opec could increase production and not hit that genuine output cap. that they willue not be able to agree to something or be able to agree to something credible? where will the breakdown in your view specifically? >> yeah, probably both. it will be hard to agree on anything. an agreement,s meeting the credibility criteria will probably be hard, because when you look at all the details , it is a tough thing to pull off. specifically to your point
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-- what istting back the baseline? is the baseline january? is the baseline include the neutral zone? include any accommodation for seasonality? saudi arabia use it ramps up a lot of volume in the summer for their cooling load. will that be an exception or will they sit tight at their january levels or today's levels? if they do it with enough caveats and exceptions, it just won't be that strong, although in name it will be an agreement for a freeze. we think that russia, for example, is very unlikely to they are in ao situation where the not having to sacrifice anything to not grow, and i think that will be brought up. member: russia is not a of opec, but it is attending.
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what about iran? minister iranian oil might not go, but might send a representative. the idea that they will meet has had a huge impact on the market. brent long positions versus wti it long positions. they are so high. in terms of brent, they are around records. what kind of disappointment fallout on the price will we see monday morning? >> we think it will be meaningful. although a lot of the commodities specialist, clients who trade oil that do all the detailed work, they haven't really thought this was going to amount to a lot in terms of this there is a segment of the oil trading market that obviously believes we have seen extraetoric generate
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length. we have had massive inflows that have come in over the several past weeks. the net length has come from every angle, whether retail etf's or traditional institutional investors, so we think it will be disappointing. saymuch, it is hard to because what we have seen is in this rally, the market has pushed aside fundamentally bearish information and data. it we have seen many doe, the wind speed statistics, the indisputably bearish, and then you closed higher at the end of the day. it says there are lots of buyers looking at things that oil traders may be are not, maybe global macro, currencies, other reasons to buy oil besides the fundamental data that we might be discussing right now. alix: what oil is not dependent
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on fundamentals? that's crazy. thank you so much. up, the latest report paints a brighter picture of the economy, but how will that play into the feds thinking? ♪
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mark: let's get the first word news. john bel edwards has issued an executive order raining discrimination in state government based on sexual orientation and gender identity. the democrat also rescinded an earlier order offering protections to people who oppose same-sex marriage. the order includes a state exemption for contractors that
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are religious organizations. the rest of the order begins immediately. famines of the germanwings crash victims are suing the u.s. the pilotool where trained. the suit was filed in phoenix against the airline training center of arizona. the year, the pilot crashed plane into the french alps, killing all 150 people on board. depressionted for before attending the flight school. president obama will issue sweeping new regulations tomorrow on offshore drilling rules. the regulations would come six years after that massive oil spill in the gulf of mexico which killed 11 workers. has struckrthquake myanmar and was felt in parts of india. the u.s. geological survey says the quake was 6.9 magnitude. germany's research center for geosciences says it was 7.1. no major damage or injuries reported.
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pakistan's prime minister in london for medical treatment for a previously unknown chronic heart condition. officials revealed for the first time that the prime minister had heart surgery some years ago that went terribly wrong. the prime minister has been under tremendous pressure from opposition parties to step down. his family members were named in the mass leak of offshore account data from the panama firm. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. alix: "what'd you miss?" the economy might not be that bad according to the latest reading of the fed's beige book. the u.s. economy expanded from late february to early april across most regions thanks to strong labor markets, rising wage pressures, and slightly better consumer spending, so what does that mean for the fed? head of u.s. rate
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strategy for rbc capital markets. book is anige anecdotal survey of the economy, but some people try to quantify it right looking at positive , and and negative words there was a nice bounce back in their measure of the latest beige book. how much attention do you pay to that? >> it is worthy of some attention, particular where they say we are seeing more wage pressure pickup. this recovery has been dependent on the consumer more than anything else. wages far more important because that is what is driving things. whenin the previous cycle we had consumer spending, that tended to be fueled by borrowing, debt financed consumer back then. now no one is borrowing aggressively, so this is a way try for dependent consumer and we pay more attention to that. what we saw today was we had sought to data this morning that
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said first-quarter gdp will be below 1%, but the beige book as suggesting we will get a repeat of what we have seen in the last few years, a soft first-quarter, and then the economy powers away and does find the rest of the year, and that's what were getting ready for right now. alix: the two-year yield, 10-year yield, nothing moved. of the things that has happened in the past month and a half is janet yellen has the flight did attention away from the u.s. environment. she pointed out she is watching overseas events, so the focus has shifted a lot over there, to oil, and to share market volatility. so while this morning we did get some week news on the economy, we got not that large of a rally and rates and short-lived. i think people look at it for a while and then went back to watching overseas. scarlet: everything ultimately
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is stuck in this range. the fed seems divided on how quickly to move investors, big investors as well. speaking of the fed being divided, is the real question inflation? that will be the issue that pushes the fed one way or another, and we've had some signs of burgeoning inflation, but then going back to the date this morning, the ppi report was soft, nothing looking particularly alarming there. do you see inflation building up to the point where the ♪ fed is ready to move? >> we are seeing some upward inflation, but the fed seems like it's going to let the inflation run a bit, get above 2% for a while, so one of the is the tips market.
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oil prices up, the dollar down a , a commodity price headwind on inflation seems to be fading, wages, service price pressures of their, so i think we will see inflation move above the feds target, but the fed will be slow going here. it seemed like upward pressure on wages was the one thing that was quite strong in reallyge book everywhere except atlantic, you wound up seeing wage increases. that is the feds bread and butter. joe: portland. going back to how you see this year playing out like past years, a weak q1, then a solid rest of the year. what is going on there? it does seem like we have this consistent pattern.
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no one seems to be particular he worried about that. thef you look at some of detail, the labor market data was fined to the first quarter, so there is a disconnect between gdp and what seems to be going on in the economy. alix: good to see you. thank you for coming in. up, is denmark in a deflationary spiral? a chart you cannot miss, next. ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. "what'd you miss?" a change in the high-yield credit market. the theme this year was no one is issuing high-yield debt anymore. that has changed in the last couple of weeks. take a look at the bloomberg here. i'm looking at the high-yield index. it shows how much volume has been issued. i did it from the beginning of march through april. the top five banks have issued about $16 billion in debt for the high-yield market. if you go back for the first two months of the year, they only issued about $10 billion, and the idea is that the more you issue, the more demand and the more risk investors are willing to take on keeping these somebody companies alive.
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this is also good news for the banks. they get fees. j.p. morgan should have made about $100 million on a $5 billion deal. muchyou have to wonder how janet yellen has kept that window open. anyone looking for pickup and profits for banks should be thinking about this. go first. joe: we are talking about canada. today the bank of canada had a rate decision. the canadian currency has been on the tear. this index has been surging, close to -100 at the start of the year, up to positive 62. it is always relative to expectations.
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it is not an absolute value. if data is better than expected, and rises. it will always oscillate. at the first of the year, data is coming in better than expected, so it is not surprising that canada's currency is on a tear and bank of canada on a hold. scarlet: i'm looking at denmark and inflation. denmark has zero inflation right now. been iner prices had the green for 13 straight months. the central bank went negative on rates in 2012 unlikely to stay there for a while. what is the cause and effect? some say it highlights the risks of a devastating deflation spiral, other saying that european easing has hurt denmark, pushing inflation down. joe: danish employment also at a low.
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wells fargo set to report. we dig into the world's biggest lender, next. ♪ you shouldn't have to go far
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to get the help you're looking for. that's why at xfinity we're opening up more stores closer to you. where you can use all of our latest products and technology. and find out how to get the most out of your service. so when you get home, all you have to do is enjoy it. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. shoshow me more like this.e. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me.
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x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. mark: let's get the first word news. president obama expected to announce weeping new regulations tomorrow on offshore drilling rules. the regulations would come six years after that massive oil spill in the gulf of mexico which killed 11 workers. costlysure would impose requirements for coastal wells and emergency clement designed to limit environmental damage. spain have in arrested a frenchman suspected in the deadly 2015 terrorist attack in paris. the 27-year-old was apprehended in the southern coastal town in spain. two other men were taken into
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custody. four people were killed inside a supermarket in that 2015 attack, and all 20 people, including a policewoman and the gunmen were killed. chicago'sce set up by mayor in response to an outcry police shootings is out with its report. it says officers have no regard for the sanctity of life when it comes to color and have alienated blacks and hispanics by using excessive force and honoring a code of silence. they found that little is done to weed out problem cops and routine encounters unnecessarily turned deadly. the south korean president's ruling party suffered a setback in elections, failing to win a majority in the legislature. with more than 90% of ballots counted, her party was on course to win 120 parliamentary seats to the ruling party currently has 146 lawmakers in the 300-seat national assembly.
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the president is limited to one term, so her party was aiming to gain a large enough majority to expedite key legislation. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. let's get a recap of today's market action, a monster rally across the board for stocks. the s&p closing up 1%. the nasdaq the big winner, up by 1.5%. has climbed 347 points in two days, the rally from shanghai composite's, the european stocks, a tie-in banks crushing it, moving to the u.s., banks surging here as well, a banner day. on market a risk everywhere you look, in the u.s. come around the world, china, emerging markets, currencies , quite aybody hated rally for the last several weeks.
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which is really helping asian markets. a tie in banks in the hope that nonperforming loans will get off their books, helping the banks. here, j.p. morgan delivering better than expected results, helping banking stocks, climbing to a three month five. there were three different factors which boosted global stocks. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" not only the biggest bank by market value, but wall street's top oil bank. with the collapse in oil prices, energy loans are concern for all the banks, but especially wells fargo. $18 year, wells fargo had billion in outstanding loans to the oil and gas industry. because of these energy loans, analysts expect wells fargo to add to its reserves for the first time since the financial crisis.
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the estimate is expected to turn positive. revenue growth is minimal expected to a year ago. 5% growth on average. net interest margin is a measure of lending profitability, a key metric, and low interest rates have put pressure on this number , expected to rise slightly for the first quarter. wells fargo is the world's biggest lender, 12% of all mortgages, and the money it made from loans and servicing them the fourth quarter, to $1.66 billion on $47 billion in originations. wells fargo reports before the opening bell on thursday. alix: great stuff. joining us to discuss energy's effect on the major banks is and thewilliams
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bloomberg energy reporter. j.p. morgan adding $525 million for bad energy loans. what will it be for wells fargo? was right in line for expectations, telling you that things are basically how they said they would be in february. for wells fargo, we are expecting to see energy reserves being added, however they have been getting some benefit on the mortgages side that is offsetting some of the provisions and this quarter to thelet's point, we will see reserve bill turning positive for the first time since 2009. a lot of that is due to energy. scarlet: talk about wells fargo specifically. wells fargo target some of the least credit worthy borrowers in the patch. that might be coming home to roost this quarter. >> this is a big growth area for a lot of the banks. a lot of the players are high-yield companies.
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one of the issues has dan that regulators are pushing the banks to look at the risk, not can you go and get your money back by liquidating assets, but does the company have the cash flow to pay you back, and that is adding to the risk-waiting of the companies. i know were talking about energy loans and write allis for bad energy loans, but what about the non-energy part of the book? are the credit problems printing, or do things look contained? >> narrator: it is the energy business and the metals and mining. -- excuse me, reserves building in the metals and mining. that, they expect that credit is going to be benign in 2016. that is a key positive for j.p. morgan in the banks. energy, itrms of
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feels like banks do not want these energy companies to go bust. that is different than wanting to get the money and run. scarlet: is this something that investors will push back on the banks to make the market those loans faster or are they more content to let banks continue rolling over those credit lines? a we are already seeing .evere reduction in credit we are in a season where banks reevaluate how much credit they are willing to extend. billion in credit yanked from 30 company since the beginning of the year. alix: 19%, is that right? how bad will it be? thee are still waiting for rest of the redetermination season to come in, but you can it is a severe withdrawal of bank credits. joe: what else are we looking
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for when wells fargo reports? rates are obviously a key factor to wells fargo and what is happening with their interest margin, wondering what is happening with deposit pricing, basically since we saw the initial fed rate hike, how are things playing out there? credit, we mortgage will be looking for any signs of weakness outside of energy. much moreredit is important for wells fargo, closer to 40% of their poo portfolio, versus 2% for energy. scarlet: we are all looking at provisions. what extent you learned about how much the banks themselves learned from the provisioning for bad housing loans when they're looking at what to do this time around with their bad energy loans. there are certainly
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parallels. these are asset-backed loans just like real estate. it's not nearly as big, so it is interesting to see that one of the things counted on is that these loans would pay off as they had historically pretty much every penny. moody's estimating $.21 on the dollar will be about what the loss looks like, so you're seeing loans considered bulletproof potentially taking a hit. alix: taking a look at the areing sector and there exposure to energy, is wells fargo the worst that we will see? question. we saw j.p. morgan today increase reserves. fargo has $1.2 billion set aside to cover its oil and gas portfolio. a higherks have percentage of investment grade energy, seem to be safer, so it will be interesting to see what they say tomorrow, but they
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don't have the largest book. alix: who has the largest? >> i wish i knew the answer to that. >> they do have the largest high-yield, so i think that's what you're thinking about. they are considered to be more exposed and their book is considered to be more exposed to high-yield and the riskier segments, so i think that is why people are watching wells fargo, because of the positioning of their book, will that position them to take higher reserves towards those loans? scarlet: reporting before the opening bell tomorrow. bloomberg television's intelligence full analysis on the bloomberg. coming up, argentina is definitely out of default after winning its court ruling today allowing them to move forward with their $15 billion bond
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sale. we discussed, next. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. filey xxi preparing to bankruptcy protection on thursday. that's according to people with knowledge of the matter. the struggling oil and gas explorer missed two interest payments on march 15. houston-based company is struggling with that debt load has ballooned as is market value shrank. and advertising partner says data about facebook's ads was given out of context. a junior level employee spoke
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out of turn during an analyst call. the company went on to say that are stillopers working with them. scarlet: the company back by blackstone has hired morgan stanley to prepare for an ipo. the initial public offering could happen as early as the second half of 2015 -- 2016, no final decision has been made. timing would depend on market volatility and investor appetite. that is your bloomberg business five. "what'd you miss?" argentina's big win in court today. they can pay back its holdout creditors from its default. talk about what the significance of today's court ruling is for foreign investors.
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is it overall good or bad? >> there are some good aspects to it, and some potential negative. a problemthe way of that has been holding up argentina since 2014 when they defaulted because of the judgment against them. lifting the injunction allows them to issue another debt to the vast majority of the noisiest judgments against them. and lifting the injunctions, they can pay off the guys with the sharpest teeth and start reintegrating with the international capital markets. my concern from some level is this is the first time you have geared the payments to benefit the people who have litigated the most, so they get the best treatment, and it is transparent. guys who forced the
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issue in court may get a side deal, but it is an open offer. in this case, they made it explicit that the nastier you were, the more you get paid. joe: in future theoretical sovereign restructurings there will be even more incentive for people to be more aggressive. >> that is my concern. there has been a lot of talk about venezuela having to do a restructuring, and my fear is that given this president where it is transparent that the harder you litigate, the better you get treated, people might want to not negotiate and go straight to court, and that something we have been trying to avoid for a long time. and could not be an issue, hopefully the framework of all the people involved understand that that should not be seen as a president and will certainly communicate to people in the market that we still think a consensual agreement makes more sense. alix: argentinian bonds are killing it. ofy rose to a record high
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100 $.22 on the dollar. $1.22. they just caught up with the coupon payments that were accruing, but the overall situation of argentina looks pretty good relative some other latin american economies. scarlet: as we pointed out in that chart, the price value came out after the recent election, extent extinct or 2 -- does the release of the panama papers help to keep economic reforms on track? >> how long do we have? concern, and a there has been a polarization in will, and part of the complexity in this restructuring is because of the politics, so it's clearly not just the fact of the panama
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papers but the antagonism him antagonism between him and the left that will create polarization. that doesn't help. and the enthusiasm going into this, people on the back of this announcement, complications, litigation. it list one part of the problem, but does not solve everything. there is still a decent amount of spread on the debt. alix: do like argentina right now? >> there are certain pockets that look attractive. it is not the most distressed play out there by a longshot. alix: what is there? so much going on in the brazilian corporate sector. i'm waiting for something to go wrong. corporate's are really busy, probably 6-7 corporate restructurings going on between mexico, brazil, so the stress in the credit markets is affecting the corporate
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sector much more than the sovereigns now in latin america. alix: what about nonperforming loans in italy? their art distrust guys dying to get in on those bad loans. is that something your firm is interested in? >> we have looked more closely at the in pl's and greece. l's in greece. i think the write-downs at the banks have been forced to take probably are a bit more austere than what the spanish and now, the italian banks and spanish banks have been selling, so there is already some activity on that side. some of the commentary around, people saying the fund is not enough, at least they recognize the problem. years when we had the latin american debt problem, so patience please. scarlet: thanks so much for
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joining us. alix: coming up, our markets reading too much in today's u.s. retail sales? takes andow you three why the american consumer is not doing that bad. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" u.s. retail sales fell unexpectedly, defying economist. we had three charts highlighting elements of today's date is set. it seemed like a disappointing retail sales report, but when you dive then, it is not that bad. this looks of the undigested
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year-over-year data versus seasonally undigested year-over-year data, and there was a gap we have not seen since 2012. one theoretical possibility is that february of this year and 2012 were very warm. so it could be the kind of thing where something with the weather screwed up the month before and adjustments, and therefore perhaps if you look at it in this nonseasonally adjusted way, the number is not quite as bad as the headline suggested. scarlet: i feel like it always comes up. one reason that you could think it's not just whether related, if you look at sales of non-store retailers, basically things you buy online. that look strong, both on an ingested and unadjusted basis. they are both higher. it has been strong over the last couple of months.
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from you're going to buy amazon even if it's 80 degrees outside are two degrees outside. other area has been, talking about warm weather, has been building materials, garden supplies, and furniture. rose so that stuff much, just shy of its january 2006 peak and could set a cord next month if it goes up again, so even if you are not buying a car or dishwasher, you are fine about buying building materials and patio furniture for your house or apartment or whatever. joe: it is one of those things that win people are buying patio furniture, it's hard to be worried about the state of the consumer. about theou feel good economy, you're going to go drink beer. joe: but overall a fair number of reasons to not worry about the report.
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scarlet: clearly we need to do more eating and drinking outside. this is home depot's earning estimate graph. the white line is the share price, and the red line is earnings estimates, both climbing higher because sales would only be good news for a company like home depot. alix: economists were saying it's going to be hard to not downgrade their assessment of consumers, but wait in seen for june. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. that is next. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" 645 of america reports at a.m. alix: bank of england rate decision tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. theynterested to hear what will say about brexit and what risks there are. they have been so careful about distancing themselves. joe: i will be looking at the u.s. cpi report tomorrow. more and more signs that inflation pressure is starting to build the, not to mention the beige book today. we will see of those continue and talk about those on
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tomorrow's show. alix: thank you for watching. scarlet: we will see you back here tomorrow. joe: have a great evening.
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john: i'm john heilemann. i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to bernie, -- verizon, can you hear me now? ♪ on the show tonight a trump family sitcom. but first, some action and drama, with less than a week to go to the new york binary. the front-runners in both parties, hillary clinton and donald trump, hold commanding lead not just an empire state, but other eastern states up to vote after new york.


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